This weekend Australia heads to the polls for our federal election after what many would say has been a lack lustre campaign from both major parties. It seems that if the polls are anything to go by, what seems like a miracle a couple of months ago, a second term, Labor government is looking most likely. It points to a clear level of poor planning and execution by the LNP, which has been highlighted by a few back flips and a bit of foot in mouth disease. It is perhaps one reason we have seen a record number of early voting, that people have been turned off. Although it is worth noting that polls have been inaccurate the last 10 years, and no one should ever count their chickens before they hatch. As there are still plenty of undecided votes, I thought it prudent to recap some of the major trends over the last few weeks and summarize the most important policy announcements.

Back peddling and policy flips.

One major policy shift we saw early in this campaign was the LNPs decisions to walk back the planned 41000 public service job cuts and desire to end working from home arrangements. Now, despite the best efforts of the LNP and Dutton to sell this as a realisation that they aren’t afraid to make changes if they realise their wrong, most people have seen it for what it is. A realisation that it was unpopular and threatened to lose them votes was always the clear motivation. Yet it had limited success as most people I have spoken to doubt that Dutton is sincere and believe he will bring back a similar scheme if elected. In addition, a backflip on a policy this significant meant the LNP looked indecisive and unorganised, which has really continued throughout the campaign.

Just after when this was starting to become a memory, it happened again with the EV tax break later in the campaign. Dutton denies this is a policy backflip, but if it wasn’t a change in policy, then it was miscommunication. One day, Dutton was making a commitment that the liberals wouldn’t remove the fringe benefit tax exemption three days later. It was another sign of a campaign that has really struggled for continuity and really doesn’t help build confidence in the coalition as an alternative government.

Education and healthcare

To major areas of policy announcements have been across healthcare and education. In health, Labor has clearly done the running before the formal campaign by announcing a big investment in healthcare, nullify this as a point of difference, the coalition matched the plan. This includes not only the investment in Medicare, the PBS, and women’s health. Realistically, the decision here for voters is whether they trust both parties to follow through. The only significant difference here has been the $1 billion investment in mental health promised by Labor. In addition the government have committed $10 million to make Medicare more inclusive as part of the National LGBTQIA health care action plan by funding training and accreditations. It is a small step but realistically is the only fresh commitment to the community by either of the major parties.

In terms of education, the parties are more split. Labor has been very clear on prompting free TAFE and decreasing student loans by 20%. This is a really big change for young Australians and will capture those either studying or who have teenage children considering their future. In contrast, the Liberals have voiced their opposition to free TAFE and promised $260 million to establish new technical colleges instead. In addition, the coalition has put forward a plan to incentivise businesses to put on new apprentices.  It is obviously an area where Labor is hoping to gain some votes as they have noticeable invested more long-term investment with the HECS discount, so we will wait and see if it bears fruit.

Lies and mistruths

The election period has been categorised by blatant lies on both sides of politics. Labor has gone hard on the Medicare scare campaign, which does stick to Dutton because of his past actions as health minister. Meanwhile, the Coalition continues to try and suggest that Labor has mismanaged the economy and are to blame for the rise in inflation. This is despite the Australian economy being ranked 2nd by the International monitory Fund. These are both the result of long-standing perceptions of both parties but actually lack any basis in the promises or action of either party in the last 12 months.

On top of this, there is a new level of disinformation that comes with social media and AI. Whether it is bots commenting and posting false information, the distribution of fake pamphlets and even candidates commenting on their own posts have been an issue. It is the sorry truth of the modern world that with increased connection, this is only going to become more prolific in future elections unless legislation and reforms start to keep pace with technology. However, the increasing desire to equate freedom of speech with the freedom to spread false information means it’s unlikely to change. The only hope then is that people question the things they see and look for respectable sources.

Trump influence

It has dominated a lot of media coverage before and during the campaign. At one stage, the emphasis from conservative media was clearly that Dutton should follow Trump style politics. However, as the US presidents continues his erratic behaviour, the shine has clearly come off and has become increasingly unpopular. The election result in Canada has also only reinforced this perception as a recurring question over the last few days is how much damage Trump has done to other conservative parties internationally.

It is something that has been hanging over the coalition throughout the election. One they brought on themselves as so many of their pre-election polices and rhetoric has mirrored Trump. Their attempts to blame immigrants, discussing referendums to deport dual citizens, campaign on cutting waste, and a war on ‘woke’ in schools are all familiar. Their attempts later to distance themselves from this comparison was almost comical. Jacinta Price, the Shadow Minister for “government efficiency,” attacked the media about Trump connections while saying that the coalition would “make Australia great again.” Conservatives may end up blaming a possible defeat on Saturday on Trump, but realistically, perhaps they should reflect on what it suggests about the views of Australians. 

Of course, the other consideration here is the relationship each leader might have with the current US president. Dutton has spoken more positively about Trump referring to him as a ‘big thinker’ after the Gaza redevelopment plan broke and there is clearly some shared views between the too leaders. This has allowed the liberals and conservative media to suggest that Dutton would be able to work more effectively with Trump considering the US president’s desire to engage with those of a similar political persuasion. This approach has been disrupted a little by the announcement of Tariff as and noise from the US that they want to pressure us to change the PBS and make changes to biosecurity. It has meant that Australians are increasing against negotiating with Trump and therefore the relationship described by Dutton before the in Feb and March is a concern for many. As such Dutton has had to try and pivot to strong and defiant approach, promising to protect Australian interests and stand up to Trump. The problem is that due to the original rhetoric after the US election and the inauguration the population has a hard time believing this about face. Meanwhile while Albo has lacked the defiance we have seen in Canada and rarely speaks in strong terms his message on dealing with the US president has been more consistent. He is going to attempt to negotiate but will protect Australian sovereignty in a way that tries not to offend the US and maintain our security links, it is a tight rope. Interestingly this is where most Australian’s sit as there is a reluctance and concern about breaking with the US in any significant way but also a clear hesitation regarding going all in with an unpredictable leader.

Minor parties

One thing is very certain this election, and that is we probably going to have a greater representation of the minor parties. The disruption of Clive Palmer’s Trumpets of Patriots as well as other right-wing parties like Family First, One Nation, and Advance Australia has cannibalised some of the coalitions vote. These parties largely tend towards a more extreme set of polices which have probably resonated more with those voters in favour of Trump style politics. Based on polling, One Nation is especially looking at picking up a noticeable increase in their vote so much so that the coalition have made a preference deal, hoping it will help them win a few tight seats.

The other side of politics is not much different. Labor’s response to the war in Gaza and some of their back flips on things like anti-discrimination laws has driven some voters towards the Greens, amongst others. Similarly, the Teal independents, which tend to target liberal seats with a slightly more centre left perspective, are also likely to still maintain a presence. These groups are more likely to side with Labor in parliament yet make the idea of a minority government a real possibility. Whether this is negative is highly debatable since it would mean the major parties have to negotiate and potentially move on issues they would normally like to ignore. However, the idea of extreme left of right views holding the balance of power is a real concern for many.

Culture wars

Both sides of politics have always loved to engage in different forms of culture wars to deflect from potential class issues. It is something that Dutton especially has always done with a clear desire to pivot when questioned on certain issues. The start of the campaign wasn’t much different as the Liberals’ targeted migrants and announced a war on ‘woke’ in education which is another policy has abandoned as the campaign has gone on. However, they were quickly overshadowed by the actions of the Trumpets of Patriots, with adds targeting trans identities, welcome to country and migration. Yet after the first week or so, this seemed to die down, perhaps as polling suggested that it was getting little traction. Alternatively, the left side of politics tended to target a more class-based attack. The greens have obviously gone heavy on taxing high income earners while Labor has tried to push a clear scare campaign on Medicare.

The final week of the campaign has seen a decision to pivot back to the culture war. Realistically, this has been opportunistic and connected to the events surrounding ANZAC day, especially here in Melbourne. For Dutton, after a couple of weeks of declining polls, it seemed to be a bit of a godsend, and he was keen to go hard. It definitely puts him more inline with the rhetoric coming from the right wing minor parties like the Trumpets of Patriots and may be an attempt not to lose voters to these groups. In fact he kept the discussion going for a few days and clearly suggesting that welcome to country ceremonies are a significant concern for Australians. Whether this really resonates with voters that are struggling with the cost of living is perhaps the question we’ll have answered on Saturday.

Housing

The housing crisis was always going to be focused on this election. Rising rents and high mortgage repayments due to inflation was going to put this on the agenda. The government has promised $10 billion to build new homes and allow first home buyers to purchase with 5% deposits and ban foreign investors for two years. The coalition has gone with allowing first home buyers with new builds to deduct interest payments and allow them to access up to $50 000 of super. In addition, they are investing in the infrastructure connect to housing developments.

There are serious issues with both plans as their is a lot of criticism that either approach will not help make houses more affordable or address all aspects of the problem. Especially since neither party attempts to address a lack of policy on skilled migration which is needed by the building sector. Overall Brendan Coates at the Grattan Institute has concluded that realistically “Labor is more likely to boost the rate of home ownership. The Coalition will allow wealthier people to buy bigger homes than otherwise.” In my view this is a fairly positive outlook as someone that has some experience in the property market I am concerned that increasing access to more borrowing power or taking money out of super means that people can afford to spend more. However, because one group of buyers can now go higher, the realistic outcome is that it will push housing prices up further. In addition, the danger of accessing superannuation could create a serious issue for people further down the road. It is not just the loss of the initial $50 000 but also the potential return over the life of a person’s super account. In my mind, both parties needed to do better here.

Cost of living

It’s been called the primary focus of the election, and both parties made their major announcement before the campaign. The government even legislated their tax cut, so they started strong here. It may be a minor cut, which does increase next financial year, but the main contrast with the coalition is that it is ongoing. In contrast, the fuel excise cut is a temporary measure and only helps those Australians who drive regularly. If you use public transport or an EV, it’s bad luck. However, both parties added a bit more through the campaign with the liberals promising a $1200 one-off tax offset while Labor announced a new standard tax deduction threshold of $1000 on an ongoing basis. Overall, the liberals seem to favour a slightly larger boost to the hip pocket but only temporarily, while Labor’s policies are going to continue, so they will give more money back in the long term. The short-term bonus will obviously appeal to many but could also be more inflationary, so it’s hard to see exactly how this falls until Saturday.

Energy

In the lead up to the election, this was the other key area that was going to gain the most attention. Realistically, Labor hasn’t announced any new approaches here and have stuck to its 82% renewable target and added $150 energy bill relief as part of its cost-of-living package. The big movement here was the coalition’s plan for Nuclear, which was announced last year and has been heavily debated for months. Personally, I find the coalitions estimates and timeframes optimistic at best consider the experiences of other countries that have an existing Nuclear infrastructure. In the meantime, the short fall of coal fire power stations is to be filled with Gas with investments in new projects, so there is some of the drill baby drill mentality here. This is realistically going to depend on whether voters are personally going to be impacted by the nuclear plants and their willingness to believe the coalition can deliver such a huge investment on budget and time. Considering the blowout with Snow Hydo 2.0, which was announced by the Turnbull government at a cost of $2 billion. Now it is up to $12 billion and is projected to be completed 7 years late. Yet, we are expecting the coalition to deliver 7 nuclear plants. I’m not sure about everyone else, but I have no faith that’s going to happen anywhere near the budget or time they are promising.

Consider the scale of such a plan the coalition has gone quiet on the nuclear plan throughout the campaign. In fact, they have done little to try and address concerns of local regional communities affected by the proposed nuclear plants. Instead, National’s leader David Littleproud tries to tell Australians that they have already won the debate on nuclear power. Rather, they really attempt to sell nuclear power at all. The coalition tend to prompt their energy policy as ‘net 0’ and have just attacked the scare campaigns. Whether this works will be interesting, but it is worth noting that the electorate’s with proposed power plants have a higher than usual pre polling turn out. Those numbers suggest people have indeed made up their minds.

Personal attacks

There are times this campaign that things have gotten quite personal and ugly. I have previously mentioned the ACL pamphlets on gender ideology that targeted Tara Burnett’s electorate on Trans Day of Visibility.  This targeted persecution hasn’t stopped there and has got a lot uglier. We have also seen Avery Howard, a non-binary candidate for the Greens, became the target of online abuse and transphobic attacks. It is a campaign that groups like Aussie Eye and Reignite Democracy Australia encouraged. The Greens candidates have not been the only targets with Labor MP Julian Hill also facing homophobic banners in his electorate of Bruce. While LGBTQIA candidates have clearly come under attack, it is more widespread. Ali France, the Labor candidate for Peter Dutton’s Dickson seat, has faced comments claiming she uses her ‘disability as an excuse’. It was an ugly comment that Dutton has since apologised for but highlights that personal attacks are becoming common place in Australian politics.

Leaders

Australia does lack likeable leaders and a real sense of charismatic statesmanship. This has been an ongoing problem but is more prominent in this election. Albo hasn’t inspired people with a lot of confidence and doesn’t have a stunning approval rating. However, he is still polling 10% points above Dutton as preferred PM. It is something that has not been helped by the continued revelations of Dutton’s questionable disclosure of his share in a family trust, which is the latest in a series of shady financial practices. In combination with his often combative and aggressive approach, which was on display in the final leader debate, place growing dissatisfaction with the campaign, it is perhaps no surprise he faces a battle in his own electorate. Realistically, it has meant that Albo has just had to maintain his calm and really wait for Dutton to bring himself undone.

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Regardless of the polls the result tomorrow is far from a certainty and even if Labor retains power the exact make-up of the house and senate means there is still plenty of interest. The possibility of a minority government is still very real and what this means in terms of either major parties ability to negotiate will potentially mean a few interesting concessions.

If your still undecided the ABC vote compass is a great way to see what parties fit most with your views on key issues. If your interested in looking back further check out the start of the campaign and the start of the year to see how the landscape has changed since Trump took office.